Taking a break from the annals of Westeros, I wanted to share a thought project I've been working on this week, a little game of What If? for two teams who were among the more active traders in the league; The Iron Bank (myself) and House Baratheon (Louis).
Methodology- find the point of inflection in the season where there was a shift in strategy. Whether it was investing in a playoff push or beginning a rebuilding process. When I narrowed in on this point of inflection, I would take the roster as it stood at that time & project out a week by week starting lineup for it for the remainder of the year. I attempted to go based on who would have actually been started rather than just the highest potential points for that week. Each simulation is independent from any other to avoid confusion.
The Iron Bank:
Point of Inflection- Week 5, 3-2, 568.04 points
Background- One of the more active traders in the league, Bank had successfully executed a trading strategy which had shifted him from a bannerman at the conclusion of the draft, to one of the contenders in the Ice Conference. After a low scoring win over House Casterly, he looked to trade some of his depth that had not broken out in order to upgrade some of the flex spots in his lineup. Losing this depth caused him to pay a much greater price for it later in the season, blowing up what looked like a juggernaut lineup to add many of those same pieces back, at a much greater price.
Week 5 Starting lineup pool- QB: Wilson, Newton; RB: Bernard, Ajayi, Ingram; WR: A. Brown, D Hopkins, J Crowder, Q Enunwa, M. Wallace, D. Adams; TE: E. Ebron, J. Graham
Actual results from Week 5 on- 6-3, 748.49 points, missed playoffs
Projected results using Week 5 starting pool- 8-1, 899.45 points, make the playoffs as the #5 Seed, lose in 1st round to House Casterly.
Summary- A great example of knowing when to walk away from the table. The Iron Bank had accumulated an impressive core which would have delivered it to the playoffs this year, and probably in years to come- but instead of sticking with it, he over tinkered and cost himself the playoffs and left himself a much tougher climb back next season.
House Baratheon
Point of Inflection- Week 8, 5-3, 845.01 points
Background- The thick of the Fire playoff race. The Stormlands & Crownlands was sporting a ridiculous four way which made the Dornish three way look like the missionary position. House Targaryen held a 6-2 record and a 1 game lead over House Fell, Baratheon, and Swann. Also, House Baratheon was right in the thick of the points wild card race only 3 points behind the Iron Bank. The very major complication for House Baratheon was a week 9 bye impacting 6 members of his player pool and an injury to his recently acquired RB Jacquizz Rodgers. If he lost week 9 with a low score, making up the ground against his divisional and wild card rivals wouldn't be possible, so he began his rebuilding process early to take advantage of the market.
Week 8 Starting Lineup pool- QB: Cousins, Kaepernick; RB: Riddick, Stewart, White, Thompson, Richard; WR: Gabriel, Austin, Fitzgerald, Fuller, Ginn; TE: M. Bennett, Kendricks
Actual results from Week 8 on- 3-3, 341.27 points, missed playoffs
Projected results using Week 8 player pool- 5-1, 473.34 points, makes the playoffs as the #5 Seed, lose in 1st round to House Casterly
Summary- While there aren't a ton of big names in the player pool above, Louis could have, with smart lineup decisions, ridden them to the playoffs. However, one has to wonder if he would be better off in the long term? Only 3-4 of his player pool can really be counted on in 2017 and beyond, whereas his reformed roster has much more youth and potential. Definitely a point for further debate.
That's all for this week, I'll be taking a look at What Ifs for another 2 teams next week. If you have suggestions of teams you'd like me to feature, let me know and I'll take a look.
This is some great work!
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