The War for the Iron Throne

The following transcribed from Lord Greyjoy's maester:

But now the rains weep o’er his hall,
With no one there to hear.
Yes now the rains weep o’er his hall,
And not a soul to hear.

It is with a heavy heart that I must report the demise of House Baratheon. Once the rulers of Westeros, the Baratheon family has been extinguished from existence. King Robert could beat anyone with his Warhammer, but his love of wine was the cause of his demise. Minstrels sing of his drunken exploits with the Dornish Red (and many Dornish redheads, as well), but he was not a man who could hold his drink. At the Tournament of the Hand, he once pissed himself before the damn joust could start. Finally taken down by a wild boar, his death was the beginning of the downfall of the Baratheon line. King Robert was not a strategician, preferring to win battles by sheer might. Once he became king, his army was turned over to Ser Anderson the Glorious, Ser McCown the Not Quite Glorious, and Ser Beat Hard the Not-At-All Glorious. These sycophants got fat and happy in the larder of Storm’s End, but were ill-prepared for the battles to come.

To the west, the white hedgehogs of House Wode, led by Lord Ronjeramie, have been wiped from existence. House Wode was a minor house in the Riverlands, and how they are even less than that. However, there were two battles of note for these fallen knights; they secured a minor victory over House Egen in the Battle of the Sad Sacks, and led a surprising sneak attack against the reavers of the Iron Islands. The seat of House Wode has been transferred to a lesser house who proved to be more loyal to the crown.

Winter has come to Westeros
“MOTHERFUCKING ICE DRAGONS!” – Ser Samwellel Jaxon

Winter has come to Westeros. The Wall has been destroyed, the Night’s King has marched south, and
all of the Seven Kingdoms have trembled in despair. Houses great and small put their past transgressions aside and banded together to battle this threat. Bastards fought next to kings, priests fought next to whores, Maesters fought next to whores, and whores fought next to knights. There’s a lot of whores in Westeros. As the fields and farmlands from the Trident to Highgarden turned to frozen tundra, the army of the dead marched south, intent on ending the eternal fight between life and death. In their darkest hour, the armies of twelve of the mightiest houses fought valiantly and turned the tide of battle. The Night’s King was defeated, he was last seen fleeing north of the remnants of the Wall, into the lands of Always Winter. Having secured the victory in the name of life, humans did what humans always will do. They bickered and squabbled and told lies, each vying for control of the remains of the kingdom. However, each of these armies had been laid almost entirely to waste, so their leaders decided to award the Iron Throne in a series of melee battles, eight men on a side, fought to the death.

The four most distinguished of the twelve armies were allowed to rest their soldiers. The armies employed by the Iron Bank, the greenseers of the Children of the Forest, and the ordained knights of houses Banefort and Forrester each earned the right to ride back home and defend their keeps in  uture battles.

The battles begin forthwith!

Free Folk vs House Greyjoy (at Pyke Coliseum)
Led by Tormund Giantsbane, the Free Folk do not kneel to any Southron lord.
Led by Euron Greyjoy, the Iron Born do not kneel to anyone.
The Free Folk are not a seafaring people, but they will fight anyone, anywhere if they believe that the
cause is just. In the Battle Against The Dead, the Greyjoys scrapped and clawed their way along, but
they also were responsible for killing many of their own side in petty arguments. There is no love lost between these two armies, even though they have never met each other in the field of battle. The army of Free Folk is larger and fiercer, but the Greyjoy army is cunning and deceitful.

House Royce vs House Hardyng (at Hardyng Hall)
They say familiarity breeds contempt, and these two houses have plenty of both. Royce, the old hand, is already experienced in the battles for the Iron Throne. House Hardyng swept in and collected allegiance from the army of House Arryn after the death of poor Sweet Robyn. These two armies have fought each other four times, with House Royce winning three of these previous battles. However, House Hardyng was victorious in the most recent melee. “Remember The Eyrie” is the battle cry of the Hardyng army, and they are fighting not just for pride, but to avenge the death of their beloved Lord Jon Arryn. Unfortunately for Hoyce Royce, his greatest knight Ser Elliot sits in the dungeon of High Priest Goodell, and will not be released from his bondage for another fortnight. Ser Hardyng has received sub-par leadership from his anointed warrior priest, Ser Dascott. His flaming sword has failed him in recent battles, when he has been separated from his brothers and forced to fight alone. Fortunately, Ser Wilson the Miniscule has been mighty, speeding through armies and decimating them singlehandedly.

House Lannister vs House Targaryen (at Stormlands Stadium)
These two titans of Westeros have been in an uneasy alliance for far too long. Both of these great houses have tremendous histories and their exploits will be sung for centuries. The armies allied with these houses were involved in a minor skirmish previously, and cries of “A Lannister always pays their debts” have been haunting the nightmares of Storm’s End ever since. House Targaryen has the advantage of defending their homelands and that may turn out to be the advantage that turns the tide of this battle, especially since Ser Crabtree has been summoned to pay a penance to the High Priest for previous acts of heinousness and will be unavailable to fight for House Lannister

Sneaky Sand Snakes vs House Tyrell (at Madison Square Highgarden)
The Tyrells and the Martells have been feuding with each other since Robert’s Rebellion, and this
animosity has finally boiled over into open warfare. The Sand Snakes are “wanting war”, and they are going to get one. Riding giant sand worms, they have taken the remnants of Prince Doran Martell’s army north to lay siege to Highgarden. Lord Mace Tyrell is the most experienced field general in Westeros, having directly fought the Night’s King (and losing), and then reforming the army of Westeros in a last-ditch effort to save humanity. The Sand Snakes are riding high after an earlier victory against Ser Loras Tyrell, but the son is not as experienced as the father. This battle is certain to be tremendous with two very strong armies squaring off against one another.

Trading Archetypes

Welcome back to Iron Bank’s trading post. Going a slightly different direction with this one. Most of my posts here review specific aspects of our league. However, this is one inspired by my time trying to trade in this league.

One of the things that makes this league my favorite is the diversity of the teams/owners. Every league has teams that fall all along the win now/productive struggle spectrum. The part that makes this league special is the variety of strategies within that spectrum.

There are struggle teams looking to build through picks/the draft, others building on buzzworthy high potential prospects that just need time to marinate, and others who invest in undervalued assets due to either injury of public perception.

By that same token, the win now teams that weight the importance of each position differently. Some are stacked at WR, some super deep at RB, others invest heavily in getting the best 2 QBs they can get their hands on.

This dichotomy of values and teambuilding approaches, in addition to the level of activity of the owners in the league, leads to a rich trading landscape (one that I frequent regularly). At this point, I have a pretty good idea about what each owner is trying to do when they trade, the best way to approach them, and what to expect from the dealings.

I’ve consolidated these to 9 archetypes of trading. In many cases, owners are a blend of them, but fall primarily into one or another. I won’t share who’s in which (unless you’d like to know, feel free to PM me on Groupme).

1.      Trade block or bust- These are your most Vanilla traders. They post what they want to deal on their trade blocks. If an offer comes in not around one of those pieces, it’s often declined without further discussion beyond “not looking to move them.” Occasionally one of these “cold calls” will bear fruit, but it’s best to stick to what they want to trade.

2.      With a side of sass- Lots of owners I’ll send a feeler offer to in order to gauge interest. These tend to be on the low side of value, but everyone knows I’m game to negotiate. These owners, however, don’t bother with such tactics unless you feel like catching hell for it. Their approach is to respond to low/even offers with comments either in trade responses or public chat indicating what a piece of shit the offer/you are. Why? To get you to overpay of course! I tend to stay away from these owners unless they clearly state their intentions for a move either via trade block or mentions in chat.

3.      Nickel and Dime- By far my least favorite type of trader to deal with. Their approach is simple.

a.       Step 1- They want to trade player X or for type of player Y, you send an offer

b.       Step 2- They like the offer, but they need a little bit more, after negotiation, you give a bit more

c.       Step 3- A little bit later, they’re really struggling with it, just need a bit more to hit accept, thinking it’s a done deal, you add a bit more

d.       Step 4- They just can’t do it as constructed, they watched more tape and really love this player unless you add more, you walk away or continue perpetuating the cycle

Some of my worst trades were due to falling into a trap associated with this approach, be mindful of what the other owner is doing, know the price you’re willing to go up to and stick to it.

4.      Hit or Miss- Another set of frustrating owners. Not because of their approach to trading, but more that when you send them an offer, it comes back with a decline with no comment or an accept with no comment. No indication of what’s good, what’s bad, are you close, are you far off. Nothing.  One owner in this group has indicated they do this on purpose to get an overpay, but this isn’t fun to deal with. Giving some feedback won’t kill you, and it makes the offers you get better.

5.      Hard Days Night- As the archetype implies, trading with these owners is like a hard days night and you’ll work like a dog to get a deal done. It takes sending an offer, following up on that offer multiple times, and usually doesn’t result in a deal. Kicking the tire on deals with these owners is a good approach from time to time, but clear your schedule if you expect to get a deal done.

6.      Blood from a stone- One of my favorite quotes when it comes to trading/sales/life is the foolish man laments the 99 that say no while the wise man celebrates the 1 that says yes. With these owners, that ratio skews a bit higher. You’ll get the 99 no’s still, but that yes is, like the archetype implies, squeezing blood from a stone. You might get some, but expect some of yours to be in there as well.

7.      Take it or leave it- A very interesting set of owners. As mentioned, most owners will send an offer on the low side and leave room for negotiation. Not these. The offer sent may allow for a little wiggle room, but is mostly take it or leave it. While sometimes refreshing to avoid the haggle, often this take it or leave it bakes in a rather healthy profit for the other owner, making it less of a win-win unless there’s an arbitrage to be had

8.      What would it take- These are my favorite owners to make a deal with. They don’t send many offers, but you almost always get a counter to an offer you sent them. For those of us who don’t subscribe to the “core player” approach and that anyone can be traded, these owners are a godsend, because even if we can’t come to a deal, I understand why.

9.      Checking the Market- People must have been wondering “gee Bank, where do you fall in this spectrum?” We’ve arrived. This archetype (which I admit I belong to), focuses on testing the waters/feelings of different owners on players. They send out a ton of offers to see which make the most sense. Due to the volume of offers sent out, they tend to be the more active traders in a league. Working with these owners is the equivalent of antique picking. You’ll see a lot of stuff that’s either worthless or not interesting, but eventually you’ll find a great deal that you need to jump at.

Anyways, those are my thoughts at this point. As usual, I welcome any feedback people have or any other archetypes you think I missed.

2016 GoT Waivers in Review

If you've been listening to the podcast the last few months, you know we've been going through each division one at a time with a deep analysis of their 2016 season.  One aspect of those analyses was my waivers in review segment.  Below you'll find my notes from those casts for each division.  Keep in mind there may be some out of date information regarding my commentary on players, since some of these were written months ago.  Also I'm terrible at this game, so take it for what you will!

Anatomy of a Rebuild- House Tyrell's Postseason

Happy new season Lords and Ladies! It's time for another ad hoc analysis from your favorite scribe, The Iron Bank. As I did with the earlier "What Ifs" I'll take a look at some of the interesting topics that come up during the offseason and try to consolidate them here for easier digestion.

This piece takes a look at the massive re-shuffle of troops going on in Highgarden. After narrowly falling to the White Walkers in the championship, Chase of House Tyrell took a look at his team and decided it was time to get younger. To jog your memory, his post-week 16 roster was (final starters in bold):

QB: Tom Brady, Eli Manning, and EJ Manuel
RB: Ezekiel Elliott, Frank Gore, Bilal Powell, Doug Martin, Andre Williams, Antone Smith, Christine Michael, Theo Riddick
WR: Dez Bryant, Dontrelle Inman, Quinton Patton, Andre Johnson, Andre Holmes, Trevor Davis, Torrey Smith, Devante Parker, Victor Cruz
TE: C.J. Uzomah, Will Tye, Larry Donnell, Tyler Eifert

Since the finals, Lord Tyrell has made 11 distinct moves (consolidating a few trades for simplicity's sake), to reform his team. I've grouped his moves into three categories: Breaking up his core, Selling his fringe assets for youth, and Securing trickle down value. Some of these won't be in the same order the trades took place, but group together well

Break up his core

1) Gave Brady, Zeke, and Riddick for Blake Bortles, Jordan Howard, Spencer Ware, and Michael Thomas (NO)

2) Gave Dez for Tavon Austin, 1.09, 2.09

3) Gave Eli and Austin for Allen Hurns, 2.20, and 2.24

4) Gave Eifert, 2.09 for 1.15, 2.04, 3.05

Tyrell wasted no time in starting his rebuild, using arguably his most valuable asset, Ezekiel Elliott, to acquire a QB1, 2 RB1s, and a WR1. With this newfound youthful production, he turned to converting Dez, Eli, and Eifert into Hurns, 2 1sts, 3 2nds, and a 3rd.

Sell Fringe Assets for Youth

5) Gave Gore, Martin for Jeremy Langford, Tevin Coleman

6) Gave 2.24 for Charles Clay, Dion Sims

7) Gave Powell, Inman, Cruz, Smith for 2.28, 3.11

To support his broader transformation, Tyrell moved some of his non-core pieces for later draft capital, Tevin Coleman, and his new lead back's handcuff. In addition, he acquired a very cheap, but startable TE in Clay and a TE who has a chance to emerge in Miami if the newly acquired Julius Thomas stumbles.

Securing Trickle Down Value

8) Gave Ware, 3.05 for Hunter Henry

9) Gave Henry, 2.04 for 1.22, 1.25, 3.10, 3.12

10) Gave Bortles, Tye for Cody Kessler, 2.05, 2.09, Baratheon's 2018 1st

11) Gave Michael Thomas (NO), 2.20, 3.10, 3.11 for 1.17, 2.01, Lannister's 2018 1st

Not one to rest on his laurels, Tyrell took to converting some of his newly acquired assets into further draft capital. Tyrell breaks down the pieces received as part of his 1st deal not named Howard to add 5 more 1st round picks and move some of his later 2nd and 3rd round capital forward into earlier in the draft.

Putting it all together

All in all, Tyrell has turned over more than half of his 2016 roster. He's now positioned to rebuild around Jordan Howard, Tevin Coleman, Devante Parker, Allen Hurns, 7 1st round picks, 4 2nd round picks, and a 3rd round pick. In a class many pundits expect to be loaded with difference making talent, a strong draft could see Tyrell back in a long term competitive position as soon as 2018.

Gave: Brady, Eli, Zeke, Riddick, Powell, Gore, Martin, Dez, Inman, Cruz, T. Smith, Eifert, and Tye

For: Kessler, Howard, Langford, Coleman, Hurns, Clay, D. Sims, 1.09 1.15, 1.17, 1.22, 1.25, 2.01, 2.05, 2.09, 2.28, 3.12, House Baratheon's 2018 1st, and House Lannister's 2018 1st.

Thanks for reading, hope you enjoyed it. As other compelling storylines come together during the offseason I'll post them here. Feel free to make suggestions of other things you'd like to see either via email or in the groupme chat.