Moncrief or MonGRIEF?

The hype for Moncrief has reached new levels, so much that the ADP on DLF has gone through the roof for this Colts WR. In the month of July, Moncrief is listed as the 22nd pick on the big board. As I did with a previous write up on Parker (you can find link at the end), we’ll put the ADP to the test.

Someone was great enough to post a video of all his receptions last year to youtube! I watched the entire video, feel free to watch it yourself if you wish! https://youtu.be/tdOyJer0fUo



The Good

 Great young QB. Luck is coming off a rough year full of injuries and sacks, but he’s still one of the best in the league. I think every WR will have a better year on the Colts. Given he produces at the same level, he will be in for a uptick in production assuming Luck stays healthy.

The Colts are a team who will be winning games with their offense, not defense. Volume for the offense in general will not be a concern.

Open space machine, defenders fear giving him too much space. Has the speed and agility to make multiple defenders miss.

He has the tools and upside to become the next Demaryius Thomas. Featured in many screens and drag routes, also primarily running square in and curt/hook routes.

He is an athlete. Jumps high, cuts fast, runs fast. What you want in a young WR.

Year 2 stats: 64 Receptions, 733 yards, 6 TDs. That’s a good line for a year 2 WR in a offense that was in the shitter. I’m not one to look at stats alone, but you can’t argue that this line is bad for any sophomore WR is isn’t elite yet.

The Eh

Fighting for targets with TY Hilton who has been the major target guy for multiple years, as well as Phillip Dorsett who assembly with have a bigger role. For the record, I don’t think having a strong WR 1 is always a bad thing on a team. Many WR 1s have evolved from WR2s, and I feel the sub often uses that as a key element in deciding who to draft. Moncrief will get his targets, I just don’t think he’ll be the number one target guy with hilton here.

Catches in traffic seems to be a mixed bag. Some nice catches, some missed opportunities.

Some beautiful catches in the red zone, but not enough to be eye popping as the next red zone monster. I think part of it has to do with a lack of consistency with the QB situation, but some may be his inability to create good separation.  I’m guessing 8 TDs next season mostly because of no Hasselback, with 4 of them being RZ over the top grabs.

Hands are fairly good, only a handful of drops he truly had to have.

The Bad

A good amount of his great plays are in broken coverages. It makes him reliant on facing bad defenses to put up great fantasy scores.

Man coverage seems to be an issue. He doesn’t great separation enough by himself while facing man to man. He did fool the shit out of Revis during one play last season, but it was a short route that didn’t amount to much. That move was nasty and can be a sign of things to come, but for now I think it was part of the minority of plays.

Route tree certainly seems limited, but it may be more of a scheme thing than a limit on Moncrief. I think it’s why I see so much of D. Thomas in him. EDIT: Moncrief has the talent to change this, and can use a little help from his team. Looking down the field for Moncrief would be easier for Luck if he could stay in the pocket for 4 seconds. I still didn't see the seperation on deeper routes that dominate WR can make, but advanced metrics show he does it like the best. Perhaps what we saw last year in the high amount of screens and drags was more due to a weak arm at QB instead of Moncrief's capabilities. This is why I referred to him as the one trick pony earlier, but it was the wrong phrase to use so I had to edit it.




The Conclusion


All and all, I think the hype has some merit. Someone at his age, in this offense, progressing in the NFL is simply scary good. What makes him such a valued pick is that his floor at this point is WR3 ish with the potential to be a fantasy WR1. A 55 reception 700 yard 5 TD season just seems like the lowest possible output, and that’s really only if he gets injured or Dorsett blows up in a huge way.

I think the ADP is a little too high, just because there are low WR1/ high WR2s at decent ages available at the same time. However, Moncrief may be the best real young WR after Cooks. So I don’t think ADP should be tied to every drafter. If you’re going youth with upside, there’s no mistake with Moncrief. This is the second write up I did, and I think Parker and Moncrief are in prime position to show themselves. However, the teams have young WRs right behind them so they can’t be that confident.

Both guys probably fall in the 30-35 range for me, but I would draft them earlier in a punt or youth only draft strategy. Next up will be L. Murray!

If you want to read my Parker article, you can go here: https://redd.it/44yocx

Thanks for reading! And just an fyi, Moncrief seems to be a great guy. Here’s an article explaining why: http://fox59.com/2016/08/02/colts-donte-moncrief-says-hell-support-daughter-of-zurlon-tipton-as-if-she-were-his-own/