Josh Gordon: Is he Worth It?

               

He’s back!!! Josh Gordon was reinstated earlier this week. The Cleveland Browns wide receiver hasn’t played an NFL snap since week 16 of the 2014 season and it will be 3 years removed from the 2013 season, in which he burst onto the scene. Yet, Josh Gordon has held value in dynasty leagues and that value is now going to skyrocket. Is the one time potential future NFL star worth the risk or will his fantasy owners be let down yet again?

Gordon has missed a ridiculous 33 games due to 5 different suspensions from the NFL or the Cleveland Browns. The good news is that he will start the 2016 season much like he started the 2013 season that put him on the map as a highly touted NFL receiver and dynasty asset. The bad news is that means he will be starting the season on a 4 game suspension. The 4 games that Gordon will miss are all against teams that finished in the bottom half in defending the pass last season (Eagles 17th, Ravens 20th, Dolphins 25th, & Redskins 21st).

First, let’s look at Gordon’s 2013 season. Gordon played in 14 games. He was the  first wide receiver in NFL history to have back-to-back 200-yard receiving games and he finished the 2013 season as the NFL's leader in receiving yards.  According to PFF, Gordon scored 227.4 fantasy points in 2013, using standard scoring. You can add another 87 points to that for PPR leagues. Gordon played 900 snaps in 2013 just about 400 more than Cleveland’s second leading receiver Nate Burleson. Gordon will be returning to a wide receiver group that includes Andrew Hawkins, Taylor Gabriel, Terrelle Pryor, Darius Jennings, and Marlon Moore as the returning wide receivers in Cleveland and the only wideouts one the team to have caught a pass in the NFL. So, it would be easy and probably smart to assume that he will be atop the list of veteran wide receivers in Cleveland. Last seasons target share is interesting to look at as Cleveland’s leading target as well as some of the other wide receivers from last season are no longer with the team. This leaves about 225 targets up for grabs plus whatever gets shaved off of guys like Gary Barnidge and Taylor Gabriel. FantasyGuru.com had Gordon listed at 158 targets with a catch rate of 55.1% in 2013. That ends up being about 11 targets per game on average and over the course of a 4 game suspension that is nearly 50 targets that Gordon will not receive in 2016. But this is dynasty you say?! Who cares if he misses 4 games in 2016? He will be extremely valuable 2017 and beyond! Yeah, I’m not buying that for several reasons.  

Cleveland invested heavily at wide receiver in the draft using 4 picks in the first 5 rounds to address the position and most notably using the 15th overall selection to take Corey Coleman. The Browns looked to be set up for life after Josh Gordon but now it looks like he can play a pivotal role in that offense, especially with his former Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III manning the position. The starting wide receiver group for weeks 1 through 4 will most likely be Corey Coleman, Andrew Hawkins and Rashard Higgins. When Gordon returns, week 5 against the Patriots, it seems very likely that he is guaranteed to at least end up ahead of Hawkins and Higgins and could potentially be the number 1 receiver in Cleveland week 5.

Gordon is a restricted free agent after the 2016 season which means Cleveland can part ways with him if they would like and if this happens are we so sure that anybody else would want him? Afterall, he has already been suspended for a year and if he ends up in trouble again then his career is over. We have already been burned not once but twice by Gordon are we really certain that a third time isn’t on the horizon? Now, there is a chance that Gordon is going to win someone a fantasy championship but there are also much cheaper options later in the season that can do the same thing. Guys like Tim Hightower, DeAngelo Williams and Kirk Cousins won people fantasy leagues last season and the cost to acquire those type of players prior to a trade deadline is much cheaper.

It has been a long time since Josh Gordon has been in football shape. The first thing that should pop into your head when you hear out of football shape or for someone who has not played in awhile is risk of injury. If you don’t use it you lose it. Yes, Gordon has been working out during his suspension but you hear players all the time say that there is a difference between being in shape and being in football shape. On top of this, news has already broke that he has a quad injury which means he will have to sit out even longer before he gets on the field with his teammates. In addition, he is going to have to shake off over a year’s worth of rust, a quad injury and any other injury setbacks he may have on his way back to being the league’s top receiver.

At this moment, there are only two ways in which I would feel safe in buying Gordon. My team would have to be a legitimate title contender. Not one of those “so you’re saying there’s a chance” teams. I am talking about a team that is almost assured at playing in the last matchup of the season. Moreover, this team would have to have multiple 1st round picks so that they would be somewhat protected if the risk did not pan out. The second way in which I would acquire Josh Gordon is if the value is too good to be true and someone offers him up for anything less than a future 1st. Gordon obviously has some fantasy value but I wouldn’t look at him as anything more than a rental player. In other words treat him as a redraft player in a dynasty world. Only value him on what you can get out of him on a season by season basis.

Looking at this year’s rookie class, I would  rather have almost all of the 1st round wide receivers over Josh Gordon. Will Fuller is right around where I would start considering Josh Gordon. Even then, as talented as Gordon is, it is just a bad situation that I would want to avoid. Even beyond this year and looking at the 2017 draft class, there is no way I am going to risk missing out on the chance at landing a Nick Chubb, Leonard Fournette, Juju Smith, Mike Williams, Corey Davis, etc. to take on someone that I am not sure can stay on the field.

Instead of trying to acquire Josh Gordon.  I would advise you to turn your attention to his teammate, Corey Coleman. The price to acquire Coleman will most likely drop as the Josh Gordon hype train starts to roll into town. Coleman’s high ranking was mostly because of opportunity and targets. Josh Gordon is going to blur that vision for people as they will begin to think that Gordon will take away Coleman’s snaps and targets. It’s true. It might happen that way this season but then again it might not and long term Coleman is a nice investment and there is a window opening in which you can buy him cheaper than a top 5 rookie pick or draft him later than his current ADP in a startup.

If you think about Gordon long enough you will remember that the last time we saw him on the field he was not performing at the level in which he was in 2013. He had 0 touchdowns over 5 games in 2014. His yards per game were nearly half of what they were in 2013 and he averaged 6 yards less per reception. Part of that might be because in 2013 Cleveland threw the football more than double the amount of times they ran it. The passing numbers for Cleveland have  slowly started to come down each year since 2013 and under new head coach Hue Jackson, I would expect those passing numbers to continue to decrease with a more balanced attack. The Cleveland offense now has better weapons than it did in 2013. Players like Duke Johnson, a surprising Gary Barnidge, and Corey Coleman will allow Cleveland to spread the ball out even more.

Gordon may be talented when he is on the field but if he is rarely there and anything but phenomenal when he plays what good does that do for you?