Saturday, July 8, 2017

Trading Archetypes


Welcome back to Iron Bank’s trading post. Going a slightly different direction with this one. Most of my posts here review specific aspects of our league. However, this is one inspired by my time trying to trade in this league.

One of the things that makes this league my favorite is the diversity of the teams/owners. Every league has teams that fall all along the win now/productive struggle spectrum. The part that makes this league special is the variety of strategies within that spectrum.

There are struggle teams looking to build through picks/the draft, others building on buzzworthy high potential prospects that just need time to marinate, and others who invest in undervalued assets due to either injury of public perception.

By that same token, the win now teams that weight the importance of each position differently. Some are stacked at WR, some super deep at RB, others invest heavily in getting the best 2 QBs they can get their hands on.

This dichotomy of values and teambuilding approaches, in addition to the level of activity of the owners in the league, leads to a rich trading landscape (one that I frequent regularly). At this point, I have a pretty good idea about what each owner is trying to do when they trade, the best way to approach them, and what to expect from the dealings.

I’ve consolidated these to 9 archetypes of trading. In many cases, owners are a blend of them, but fall primarily into one or another. I won’t share who’s in which (unless you’d like to know, feel free to PM me on Groupme).

1.      Trade block or bust- These are your most Vanilla traders. They post what they want to deal on their trade blocks. If an offer comes in not around one of those pieces, it’s often declined without further discussion beyond “not looking to move them.” Occasionally one of these “cold calls” will bear fruit, but it’s best to stick to what they want to trade.

2.      With a side of sass- Lots of owners I’ll send a feeler offer to in order to gauge interest. These tend to be on the low side of value, but everyone knows I’m game to negotiate. These owners, however, don’t bother with such tactics unless you feel like catching hell for it. Their approach is to respond to low/even offers with comments either in trade responses or public chat indicating what a piece of shit the offer/you are. Why? To get you to overpay of course! I tend to stay away from these owners unless they clearly state their intentions for a move either via trade block or mentions in chat.

3.      Nickel and Dime- By far my least favorite type of trader to deal with. Their approach is simple.

a.       Step 1- They want to trade player X or for type of player Y, you send an offer

b.       Step 2- They like the offer, but they need a little bit more, after negotiation, you give a bit more

c.       Step 3- A little bit later, they’re really struggling with it, just need a bit more to hit accept, thinking it’s a done deal, you add a bit more

d.       Step 4- They just can’t do it as constructed, they watched more tape and really love this player unless you add more, you walk away or continue perpetuating the cycle

Some of my worst trades were due to falling into a trap associated with this approach, be mindful of what the other owner is doing, know the price you’re willing to go up to and stick to it.

4.      Hit or Miss- Another set of frustrating owners. Not because of their approach to trading, but more that when you send them an offer, it comes back with a decline with no comment or an accept with no comment. No indication of what’s good, what’s bad, are you close, are you far off. Nothing.  One owner in this group has indicated they do this on purpose to get an overpay, but this isn’t fun to deal with. Giving some feedback won’t kill you, and it makes the offers you get better.

5.      Hard Days Night- As the archetype implies, trading with these owners is like a hard days night and you’ll work like a dog to get a deal done. It takes sending an offer, following up on that offer multiple times, and usually doesn’t result in a deal. Kicking the tire on deals with these owners is a good approach from time to time, but clear your schedule if you expect to get a deal done.

6.      Blood from a stone- One of my favorite quotes when it comes to trading/sales/life is the foolish man laments the 99 that say no while the wise man celebrates the 1 that says yes. With these owners, that ratio skews a bit higher. You’ll get the 99 no’s still, but that yes is, like the archetype implies, squeezing blood from a stone. You might get some, but expect some of yours to be in there as well.

7.      Take it or leave it- A very interesting set of owners. As mentioned, most owners will send an offer on the low side and leave room for negotiation. Not these. The offer sent may allow for a little wiggle room, but is mostly take it or leave it. While sometimes refreshing to avoid the haggle, often this take it or leave it bakes in a rather healthy profit for the other owner, making it less of a win-win unless there’s an arbitrage to be had

8.      What would it take- These are my favorite owners to make a deal with. They don’t send many offers, but you almost always get a counter to an offer you sent them. For those of us who don’t subscribe to the “core player” approach and that anyone can be traded, these owners are a godsend, because even if we can’t come to a deal, I understand why.

9.      Checking the Market- People must have been wondering “gee Bank, where do you fall in this spectrum?” We’ve arrived. This archetype (which I admit I belong to), focuses on testing the waters/feelings of different owners on players. They send out a ton of offers to see which make the most sense. Due to the volume of offers sent out, they tend to be the more active traders in a league. Working with these owners is the equivalent of antique picking. You’ll see a lot of stuff that’s either worthless or not interesting, but eventually you’ll find a great deal that you need to jump at.

Anyways, those are my thoughts at this point. As usual, I welcome any feedback people have or any other archetypes you think I missed.